San Diego State vs. Foreman’s Pick: March Madness forecasts, odds, best bets

First major disruption in 2023 NCAA Tournament It was courtesy of no. 13th seed Furman, who shocked fourth-ranked Virginia by a late 3-pointer to seal the victory.

Don’t bet on the Paladins catching the same breaks against an experienced and tenacious San Diego State team.

Furman doesn’t have as much a prolific 3-point offense as he does a point offense: The Paladins rank 12th nationally in 3-point averages (46.5 percent) but they only connect on 34.4 percent of those attempts, which ranks outside the top 150.

San Diego State vs. Foreman’s choice

We saw that play out on Thursday, when Furman made just 4 of his 17 3-point attempts before hitting 6 of his final 11 attempts — including that dagger 2 seconds earlier — to beat a lax Virginia defense that was weak against 3. The ball is all the way. general.

That’s not the case with San Diego State, which ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and 3-point rushing (28.9 percent) the entire season.

The Aztecs defense was a constant annoyance for Charleston—another high-volume, low-profile three-point shooting team—who finished 5-for-only 24 on threes (20.8 percent) and scored 0.83 points per 100 possessions in a first-round loss.

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SDSU profiles as a top 10 team in the nation since February. 1, with the nation’s most efficient defense, ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage (42.9 percent) and second in 3-point percentage (25.4 percent).

Barring a miracle running from the deep, I don’t see Foreman generating enough offense to pull off a second consecutive upset.

San Diego State vs. Foreman prediction

San Diego State -5.5 (-110, points)

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